Best Team Never

They say to never write anything in anger so if I wrote this last night it would be the most hate filled, venomous, sad, depressed, angry blog of all time. But don't worry there's still plenty of anger in here. So I barely slept last night and thought about the whole season and whose to blame for the collapse. So welcome to BJ Shea's morgue and lets examine the 2011 Red Sox body while its still fresh. I'll name of the biggest culprits of this disaster.


Theo Epstein- I'm a Theo apologist but its got to start at the top with this thing. There were holes to fill at the trade deadline and throughout the year that Theo didn't fill. Erik Bedard was a disaster, he couldn't even get INTO the 5th never mind get out of the 5th. Not picking up a good bat to pinch hit throughout the year was a mistake as evidenced by the fact we had to have Ryan Lavarnway hit in the top of the 9th with the bases loaded. Theo admitted this year at spring training that we don't have the pitching depth that we should and that one injury or pure ineffectiveness by anyone will doom this team. Well guess what Clay Buchholz got hurt, Dice K (remember him?) got hurt and John Lackey had the worst season of any pitcher in history. After we won in 2007 I thought we had the next baseball dynasty. We just needed to fill in a few holes here and there but Theo hasn't done that.

Terry Francona- With collapses like these there's always going to be a scape goat and in this case it will probably be Tito. I don't know what happened in that clubhouse and we will probably never will know. I don't know if the players started to tune him but hes been here for a long time. And when a manager or a coach has been around awhile players start to tune they guy out. Its not in Francona's nature to be the flip out type of guy like a Lou Piniella and his way has worked obviously but along the way he lost this teams focus. Guys running into outs that shouldn't be. Playing awful defense. They were among the league leaders in errors in September. Something happened along the way and its more on the players than Francona but the manager always is the fall guy.

The Players- The players of this team get the biggest slice of blame pie for this debacle of a season and month. This team had no heart whatsoever. Do not blame injuries like Adrian Gonzalez did last night. When things got tough they got tight and almost pretty much gave up. The 2004 and 2007, two teams with great heart and mental toughness, would be ashamed. There are guys that have heart, like Pedroia, Ellsbury, Papi, Scutaro and Papelbon, but there was bigger factor here at work where it just snowballed. There were guys walked around with a sense of privilege that they didn't deserve.

John Lackey- Probably the most hated player ever. Whoever is running the ship next year, weather its Theo or someone else, has to find a way to get rid of this guy. He cant pitch here. He's just sensitive and thin skinned for this environment. The signing was a ultimate disaster. He has an excuse for everything. The numbers speak for them self. Highest ERA in the league. Highest WHIP in the league. Whatever you have to do to dump him you have to do it. Probably gonna have to eat more than half of the contract.

Carl Crawford- I was for the signing when it happened but in the back of my mind it never felt right. It always felt like a Yankee type signing. He was the best player on the market but he never seemed like a good fit. I don't think they thought about the fit here. It was the definition of round peg in the square hole. There was nowhere in the lineup for him to hit. They tried 3rd, 2nd, 6th, 7th and he didn't fit in any of those spots. This year was just a lost year for him. I don't think hes gonna be as bad next year as he was this year. of course I said the same thing after Lackey's first year and he somehow got worse. He looked scared this year. He had a glazed look on his face all year. Guy once played in a World Series! What is he scared about? That final play last night it was almost fitting how the ball got hit to him in that fashion. He has to catch that ball if hes a so called gold glove award winner. Ken Griffey Jr probably makes that play right now.

Jonathan Papelbon- There is a group of Red Sox fans out there (and you know who you are) that doesn't like Papelbon. Pap is the last guy I blame for what happened. Its too bad that he blew up at the worst possible time. This was probably Papelbon's best year. He was one of the few guys that showed up and took blame when it was necessary. If we let Pap go we are screwed. Bard isn't a closer. I mean look at his September. He was puddle on the mound. You have to bring Pap back.

Beckett and Lester- After being good to great all year and then exploding all of the themselves in September was the most troubling. Their supposed to be our two aces and they didn't have one big win during this collapse. An ace has to be a stopper and put the team on their back and come through when the team needs them most. Pedro did it. Schilling did it. These two didn't do it.

And that's just going through some of the carnage of this team. Everyone is to blame. A wasted great year by Jacoby Ellsbury who will probably be gone after 2013. I don't know whats going to happen to David Ortiz. Hes an icon here that can still hit. Personally I would like to see him come back but who knows. Changes will be made and heads will roll. My gut says that Francona wont return and that's a shame I don't know what free agents are out there to get but that's never been a success for us to go out and get high priced free agents.


With all that being, let me try to be an objective fan here and be a fan of baseball for a second. What a great, dramatic night of baseball last night. Congrats to Rays for being a true team and having heart (unlike the Red Sox) and coming through in the biggest stage. I'm sure there's young 10 and 12 year olds in Tampa in love with Evan Longoria in the same way I was in love with Nomar Garciaparra and thinking he could do anything. Nights like last night is why we watch sports.

Until next time...

The Moneyball World

The last time I blogged I gave NBA playoff predictions which turned into a debacle and I wrote about how the Bruins were collapsing in the playoffs. Well the NBA picks were awful and the Bruins went on to win the Stanley Cup so I suspended myself from blogging for awhile. Well that and I didn't have wireless internet but I'm back now and hopefully better than ever.


When "MoneyBall" was released back in 2003 it changed how baseball teams were built and how baseball players were looked at. More of an emphasis was put on raw data rather than raw talent. Stats such as OPS (on base plus slugging) and range factor ( a way to judge how good a player is defensively) became more important when evaluating a player than physical skill. Ive embraced some of these stats such as on base percentage and OPS but I think some of them are ridiculous such as UZR ( ultimate zone rating), VORP ( value over replacement player), and WAR ( wins above replacement).


Building a team strictly on sabermetrics you could turn your team into a clubhouse full of robots. Take for instance this years Red Sox team and their recent collapse. General Manager Theo Epstein is part of the sabermetric revolution and hes built his team by looking at the advanced stats and churning players out of the super computers down at Fenway. Hes built a great team but this last month has been a disaster. My theory is everyone in that clubhouse from top to bottom is relying on the percentages. Theres no one in that clubhouse to get people loose. Theres no Millar to say something stupid and get people in a relaxed mood. I think Pedroia has tried to do it but when your stuck in the same locker room as John Lackey who is sucking the life of everyone in Red Sox nation its tough to be relaxed. I personally would like to see more a blend of numbers and intangibles out of the Red Sox and how they build their team. More Pedroias less JD Drews.

Many moves Epstein has made I've agreed with. Adrian Gonzalez is a no brainer. The Nomar trade in 2004 turned out great. His commitment to the farm system speaks for itself. But Theo is at fault in some moves. Letting Orlando Cabrera go after the 2004 World Series and choosing Edgar Renteria was the definition of choosing numbers over intangibles. Orlando's OBP with the Red Sox in 2004 was .320. Renteria's in 2004 was .335. Carrer OBP is .317 OC to .343 for Edgar. No doubt Renteria has better numbers over his career than Cabrera but just by looking at the way they player in their short times with the Red Sox there's little doubt who has better intangibles. Orlando thrived the atmosphere in Boston while Renteria was a wreck. Cabrera fit in perfectly with that teams and remains a fan favorite and a personal favorite. Also I believe that the fact OC has been on teams that made the playoffs in 6 of the last 7 seasons adds to the intangible factor. Guys a winner.

The summary of this post is that you cant strictly build your team out of a computer. Numbers are important but I think the personality and intangible factor is just as a important. Recent championship teams have had a good mix of sabermetrics and old school way. Reliance on the computers doesn't get you any where as evidence by the 2002 and 2003 Oakland A's.

Until next time....

Belmont Stakes 2011

Im only doing this because facebook apparently has a character limit like twitter.

For the kentucky derby i posted the following. "love soldat out of the 17 gate tonight. if the track stays wet though derby kitten in the 9 gate at 29/1 will be your sleeper. happy kentucky derby"

Well it turned out Soldat didn't get the jump i was hoping for an with 19 other ponies running, he never recovered. It also never rained like i was hoping so derby kitty and his over sized body couldn't take advantage. They finished 12th and 14th respectively.

Then came the preakness... "for the preakness. i love shackleford out of the 5 gate. (13/1) Box up an exacta with midnight interlude out of the 7 (15/1) and you will be happy. enjoy the rapture"

Despite us not dying, i did the opposite and lived. and won a shitload of money. Would have been so much more if this race was half the distance. Midnight interlude is still a great horse, just built like a broad on her period. Something happened and this horse just quit. Maybe it was the dirt who knows. Anyways, here comes the Belmont predictions. The race is this saturday and i believe its race 11. confirm before you wager.

i love nehro out of the 6 at 4 to 1. kid is born to run long distances and sat out the preakness for extra rest. i also love animal kingdom out of the 9 and thats saying alot since i NEVER take favorites. with only 12 horses animal kingdom can adapt to any pace set by another horse since he refuses to jump out early. coming out on the side will also allow him to slowly work his way to the rail leaving the others behind. Take the 6/9 and box up your exacta. it will pay 10/1 or so. if your feeling froggy, i like brilliant speed at 15/1 out of the 5 gate. shows late speed and with this small field, won't get trapped. Even if this horse does get trapped this is the longest race in the triple crown so there is plenty of time to recover. Your trifecta should read 6-9-5 and pay about 40/1... enjoy everyone.

remember... you lose 100% of the bets you don't make

NBA Playoff Preview

Quick blog during the Bruins latest playoff collapse.
East
Bulls/pacers- Derrick Rose easily dominates this series and cements his place as top 5 player in the league. Bulls sweep.

Heat/76ers- The 6ers want to play uptempo. The Heat can only play uptempo. Lebron and Wade go off for 30 each a game. Elton Brand could dominate Chris Bosh downl low. Tougher than people think. Heat in 6.

Celtics/Knicks- The franchise with the greatest history of all time vs the franchise that ESPN wants you to think is the greatest of all time. The knicks are coming in and the Celtics come in cold. But last I checked defense wins in the playoffs. KG, Pierce, Ray, and Rondo turn it on. Shaq wears nice suits the whole series. Celts in 5.

Magic/Hawks- Depends if the Hawks play like men and have some pride from last years beatdown at the hands of the Magic. One of the Collins twins is expected to play big minutes for the Hawks. Never a good thing. Magic in 6.

Bulls/Magic- Tom Thibadeou knows how to defend Dwight and he's got the bodies to do it. Nelson and Gilbert can guard me or you. Rose countinues playoff dominance. Bulls in 6.

Celts/Heat- The ultimate battle of good vs evil depending on how you see it. I think chris Bosh is legit scared of KG at times. Shaq stops the fun events he does and grabs rebounds and takes up space. Lebron has never beaten the Celtics in the playoffs. Celts in 6.

Celts/Bulls- Toughest series of the new Big 3 era I think. NBA playoff history shows that Bulls aren't ready to win the championship and you have to lose before you
can win. The Big 3 won't let maybe their last chance at the Finals slip by. Jeff Green comes up big, mark it down. Celts in 6.

West preview coming after the Bruins....

nba 2011 predictions/truths

East.

Chicago/Indiana: Is there any reason to break this down? Scalabrine could play 35 minutes a game and Chicago still wins easy in four. More interesting sub plot? Tyler Hansborough getting all vertigoed like lucil from arrested development. thanks white people.

Miami/Phili: I don't hate Phili here. Maybe because I started three of their players all year on my championship fantasy basketball team. (Young, Brand, and williams) I love the direction this team is heading. This team attacks the rim and had three players who grabbed 100+ offensive boards. Unfortunatly Lebron always plays well in round ones. Miami takes in six games, but if it stretches to seven, anything is possible.

Boston/NYK: Is this 2010? A team goes on coast mode till the playoffs, then turns into a dominate force during april/may? This year poses similar scenarios for boston. A round one matchup with a team that knows they will be 100 times better next season. A second round match up with a power house that has zero team chemistry and is one delonte west sex scandel away from falling apart. A round three match up with... i'll get there. The knicks do have three D leaguers looking to be a twelfth man next season so they have that going for them. oh, and they are going to get big minutes. Carmello will go off, and the celtics will have some issues to work out but will sneak by in six games.

Orlando/Atlanta: Bad match-up for the Hawks. That being said, the remaining 15 playoff teams are bad match ups for the hawks. The San Jose Sharks of the NBA. Always good enough to make the playoffs, win a few big games, pick on the little guy, but when you get into a series, you are done. Next time don't offer big Joe more money than what lebron and wade got. 5th place for the next decade. Orlando wins by 10 in 4 straight.

West.

San Antonio/Memphis: 97-96. 2.1 seconds left. Spurs up one. Grizz ball inside... Tony Allen gets the inbound. Spurs in five.

LAL/Nalins: I feel ya kobe. Saying Fagit and getting fined 100,000 isn't fair. If the man isn't going to charge players for dropping n bombs and c patients all day then i'm on your side. Even with David West the lakers take in four games. Don't worry hornets. Seattle wants a team again.

Portland/Dallas: Another above average Dallas team. Another banged up Portland team. Nobody wants to play portland is their rally cry. However nobody explains why. Heroin capital of the world goes down in six.

OK/Denver: By far the only matchup i am looking forward to in the west. The thunder have an identity that doesn't involve durrant shooting 13/37 like he's the black fredette. They are tough and will punch you back. It is the perfect recipe for a team like denver that has zero identity and has no motivation other than to stick it to carmelo. Hey denver, no one is mad at him. Don't worry though. You still got Tebow.

East Round 2:

Chicago/Orlando. Upset special. There are two facts in this match up. Chicago is a defensive minded tough physical team, and Orlando is a bunch of 3 point shooting wimps. Well... Chicago feeds off teams trying to get inside, control the paint, and act tough. They get in your head and force opponents to make bad decisions. Orlando just moves the ball and shoots unless howard gets open. If they miss, they shoot again. They Don't pretend to be tough ever. They are like the knicks but can spell defense. Dwight will be mostly ineffective on the stat sheet but his presense will demand a double from good, but undersized big men in noah and boozer leaving the arc wide open. Orlando will go out on some early runs and put this series away in six games.

Miami/Boston. The popular pick is Miami in 5. the number 5 represents how many practices the celtics have had since trading perkins. the number 5 also represents the number of practices the celtics have had in the past week. This series will come down to the paint. Lesidekick and Wade will do their thing getting 70% of the teams points but when we factor in Rondo vs bibby and centers vs centers the Celtics will have no excuse to lose. Miami gets hot, Boston bounces back, and we all enjoy game 7 in south beach...

San Antonio/OKC. The ultimate team you wanted two years ago vs the ultimate team you want in two years. Don't put stock in the regular season. That being said, you take expierence all day. The spurs are like that attractive single mother who passed her prime. She won't keep you up at night but when you are in bed with her, your never gonna forget it. The Thunder are like that 21 year old blonde who has daddy problems, but is cute enough to get whatever she wants. She is going to do some weird things you never thought possible and make you the happiest person in the world, but will end up cheating on you and leave you out of the playoffs in six games.

LAL/Dallas: Another fantastic match up. Dallas is once again screaming, were not afraid. May be true, but doesn't translate into wins. Kobe warms up here going toe to toe with dirk a dirk. Starts heating up for the finals. The lakers depth takes them to the semi's.

Round 3 East:

Boston/Orlando. In a near 20/1 scenario, the 3 v 4 seed will happen. Either team has an even chance to win here. If the celtics make threes to combat orlando they will prevail, but if they continue to shoot less than 20% from downtown orlando will face the lakers. Either way, this goes seven as well.

Round 3 West:

LAL/Spurs. Sorry spurs. I'm getting tired. you lost by 30 at home last month to LAL. Not much to like about you here. Don't put stock in the regular season! LAL cruises in 4 games.

Finals:

LAL/Boston: You know it, I know it, more importantly, the American people know it, and they want it. LAL Miami would be a great series too but now your asking people that hate the lakers to cheer for them. Boston divides america in half. I like the cardiac heart attack potential kids (Boston) in seven, once again. If not, we always have the red sox!

ps: Sorry about spelling, puncuation, etc. I don't give a fuck. Plus the only way anyone ever reads this is if i get everything right. Can't stop, wont stop...

Exam # 2

The Celtics failed their first big test heading into the playoffs of the Jeff Green era. They were absloutly spanked by the Eastern Conference leading Chicago Bulls. The Celtics looked soft and not confident. They have lacked an identity since the trade of Kendrick Perkins. They are no longer the tough beast of a team that I have come to love watching. When we have won we've looked good but when we've lost we've looked really bad like the other night vs the Bulls. Yeah we beat the Spurs pretty good but I wouldn't consider the Spurs the best team in the West, the Lakers are. Today's game vs the Heat is big. Our big advantage vs was our size down low in the paint and with Perk gone and Shaq out till who knows when we might have to beat them a different way. Since the trade teams play with a new found confidence vs the Celtics. It's up to the Big 4 to take that confidence away.

Everything that can go wrong has gone wrong for the Boston Red Sox in the first six games. Losing today on a squeeze play and then over running a base after the ball goes off the pitcher. But lets face it the Red Sox aren't going to be in last place. Pedroia, Youk, and Crawford aren't going to hit this bad. Only the pink hats are in a state of total panic. The Sox are just playing really dumb baseball right now. The pitchers didn't come out of spring training in shape. Clay wasn't ready and neither was Dice K. Lester pitched well today and hell be like that all year I'm willing to bet. Everything will be ok but I don't think they will be the "Best Team Ever" according to the Boston Herald.