The last time I blogged I gave NBA playoff predictions which turned into a debacle and I wrote about how the Bruins were collapsing in the playoffs. Well the NBA picks were awful and the Bruins went on to win the Stanley Cup so I suspended myself from blogging for awhile. Well that and I didn't have wireless internet but I'm back now and hopefully better than ever.
When "MoneyBall" was released back in 2003 it changed how baseball teams were built and how baseball players were looked at. More of an emphasis was put on raw data rather than raw talent. Stats such as OPS (on base plus slugging) and range factor ( a way to judge how good a player is defensively) became more important when evaluating a player than physical skill. Ive embraced some of these stats such as on base percentage and OPS but I think some of them are ridiculous such as UZR ( ultimate zone rating), VORP ( value over replacement player), and WAR ( wins above replacement).
Building a team strictly on sabermetrics you could turn your team into a clubhouse full of robots. Take for instance this years Red Sox team and their recent collapse. General Manager Theo Epstein is part of the sabermetric revolution and hes built his team by looking at the advanced stats and churning players out of the super computers down at Fenway. Hes built a great team but this last month has been a disaster. My theory is everyone in that clubhouse from top to bottom is relying on the percentages. Theres no one in that clubhouse to get people loose. Theres no Millar to say something stupid and get people in a relaxed mood. I think Pedroia has tried to do it but when your stuck in the same locker room as John Lackey who is sucking the life of everyone in Red Sox nation its tough to be relaxed. I personally would like to see more a blend of numbers and intangibles out of the Red Sox and how they build their team. More Pedroias less JD Drews.
Many moves Epstein has made I've agreed with. Adrian Gonzalez is a no brainer. The Nomar trade in 2004 turned out great. His commitment to the farm system speaks for itself. But Theo is at fault in some moves. Letting Orlando Cabrera go after the 2004 World Series and choosing Edgar Renteria was the definition of choosing numbers over intangibles. Orlando's OBP with the Red Sox in 2004 was .320. Renteria's in 2004 was .335. Carrer OBP is .317 OC to .343 for Edgar. No doubt Renteria has better numbers over his career than Cabrera but just by looking at the way they player in their short times with the Red Sox there's little doubt who has better intangibles. Orlando thrived the atmosphere in Boston while Renteria was a wreck. Cabrera fit in perfectly with that teams and remains a fan favorite and a personal favorite. Also I believe that the fact OC has been on teams that made the playoffs in 6 of the last 7 seasons adds to the intangible factor. Guys a winner.
The summary of this post is that you cant strictly build your team out of a computer. Numbers are important but I think the personality and intangible factor is just as a important. Recent championship teams have had a good mix of sabermetrics and old school way. Reliance on the computers doesn't get you any where as evidence by the 2002 and 2003 Oakland A's.
Until next time....
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